UNCERTAIN WORLDS
PART 5: EXPLORING BRAND FUTURES
10-12 MINUTE READ. PUBLISHED 1 JUL 2024. UPDATED 23 JUL 2024.
CREATIVE COMMONS CC BY ELECTRO STRATEGY STUDIO. WRITTEN BY ADRIAN JARVIS.
TL;DR Brand futures help brands anticipate changes in society, regulations, technology, and the environment. By exploring future scenarios, brands can innovate and develop strategies for sustainable growth. Understanding dynamics such as demographic shifts and trends helps brands stay relevant and resilient.
REIMAGINING THE POSSIBLE AND IMPROBABLE.
In an uncertain world, brand futures offer a strategic way to anticipate changes in society, technology, regulation, and the environment. This helps brands explore various scenarios and use design to make the future more tangible. And through more meaningful conversations, we are able to better tackle our immediate challenges and longer-term opportunities.
A designer is an emerging synthesis of artist, inventor, mechanic, objective economist, and evolutionary strategist. Buckminster Fuller, Ideas and Integrities, 1963
This article is based on many practical projects, most notably with Dove/Unilever, Coca-Cola, and The British Library. It also recognises the work of all the brilliant colleagues over the years at R/GA, Organic, BrandTech Consulting, and Accept & Proceed — while only having space to include references to a few of the talented practitioners who have published in the world of ‘futures’, especially Hancock & Bezold who proposed the first ‘futures cone’ in 1993.
This is part 5 in a series about practical frameworks for brand design. Jump to Part 1 — Connected Brands and Ecosystems, Part 2 — Designing Brands as a Force for Good, Part 3 — Systems Thinking for Brand Designers or Part 4 — Designing Resilient Brands.
WHY BRAND FUTURES MATTER.
Futures help build brands that can predict and adapt to emerging market conditions, ensuring they remain valuable and valued. This involves being intentional in how we design brands, considering what is coming and the impact we have on the world.
Charging your work with intention is recognising the opportunity we have as creators to inspire new stories, new systems, new ways of thinking and being — the power of brand and the power of communications, and the necessary role that it plays in the future. David Johnson, Accept & Proceed, July 2023
ANTICIPATING CHANGE.
As technology and society evolve, so do people’s needs and expectations. Brand futures help businesses stay ahead, by anticipating and preparing for these changes.
This proactive approach enables companies to innovate strategically rather than reactively. By informing design strategies, brand futures help businesses better withstand disruptive events and navigate widespread change.
PURPOSE-DRIVEN BRANDS.
Brand futures emphasise sustainable practices, which are increasingly important in a world facing social and environmental challenges.
By prioritising approaches that are friendly to both people and the planet, brands can reduce their impact, avoid harm, and appeal to an increasingly conscious society.
ALIGNED BUSINESS MODELS.
Brand futures help align a brand’s purpose and business model by anticipating trends and societal shifts. This alignment ensures the brand remains relevant and financially sustainable.
And brand design that considers global needs are more likely to create products and services that address real-world issues. This can position a brand as a social innovator, finding new sources of value as the world changes.
CREDIT: INFARM TECHNOLOGIES
FUTURISM, FUTURES, DESIGN AND BRANDS.
By exploring scenarios about the future, brand strategists and designers can better adapt to meet evolving needs. This forward-thinking approach helps create brands that will continue to resonate with consumers and investors — in two, five, ten or more years.
Modern branding is more than logos, products, and advertising. It now includes purpose, people, culture and experiences — all of which have become essential for sustainable growth. And, at the heart of modern branding lies a partnership of foresight and design, the recipe for thriving in our uncertain world. Growth For The Future, Jan 2023
FUTURISM is a cultural and intellectual movement, founded as an art and social movement in Italy during the early 20th century, that explores and anticipates the future. It involves imagining dynamic future developments in wide-ranging fields, including technology, science, art, and society. Futurism seeks to challenge norms and envision revolutionary change.
FUTURES refer to the study and anticipation of potential developments and trends in specific areas such as consumer behaviour, fashion, technology, and environmentalism. Futures cover a wide range of scenarios, considering multiple ways in which the world might change.
DESIGN FUTURES focus specifically on how design can shape and respond to change. Design futures create prototypes that explore the real possibilities of different scenarios. The goal is to make the future more tangible and engage people in discussions about design’s role in shaping our world.
BRAND FUTURES takes the concept of design futures further by applying it specifically to brand strategy. Focusing on anticipating trends and challenges to design products, services and experiences — ensuring brands remain adaptable, resilient, and aligned to their purpose.
CREDIT: FRAMEWORK COMPUTER INC.
MAJOR DRIVERS OF CHANGE.
As we approach 2030, five major drivers (and the spectre of Black Swan events) will define our journey to 2050. These drivers provide an initial starting point for brand futures — shaping how we design narratives, products, services and experiences to meet future needs.
Creating sustainable concepts and using sustainable materials is now a universal issue closely bound up with the survival and development of humanity. Our approach to design must consider the environmental impact at every stage, from sourcing materials to the end of a product’s lifecycle. The Future Laboratory, The Rise of Conscious Design, 2021
TECHNOLOGY: Rapid developments in AI, biotechnology, and quantum computing will transform industries and everyday life. These advancements will require adaptive thinking that can trial new technologies and imagine their full potential.
PLANETARY BOUNDARIES: The urgency of addressing climate is driving the adoption of sustainable practices across all nine planetary boundaries. This includes designing brands with lower environmental impact, while promoting a more circular economy.
DEMOGRAPHICS: Changes in population dynamics, such as ageing populations and urbanisation, will have a strong influence on design. Products and services will need to cater to diverse age groups and the challenges of urban living.
EQUALITY: Addressing disparities in wealth and access to resources is becoming increasingly important. Brand futures must consider inclusivity to ensure they benefit a broad spectrum of society — especially those linked to Sustainable Development Goals (SDG).
WELLBEING: The pandemic underscored the importance of health and wellbeing. Brands are increasingly considering mental and physical health — integrating these aspects into everyday products and services.
BLACK SWANS: After the pandemic, we are more aware of highly improbable, significant events that rapidly reshape society. As we look towards 2050, Black Swans could be positive, such as breakthroughs in perpetual clean energy, or negative, such as a collapse of financial systems.
CREDIT: BANOFI LEATHER
DEFINING BRAND FUTURES.
To define brand futures, we start by understanding the past and present to forecast possible future scenarios. Defining futures typically involves a combination of methodologies that anticipate, envision, and prototype potential futures.
The field of futures studies is inherently an ambiguous and evolving landscape. Within this malleable space of thought and study, there is no agreed upon definition of what a futurist is, or how work in this field is done. The Operator’s Manual, Extrapolation Factory 2016
STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT.
Engaging with a wide range of stakeholders, including employees, customers, partners, experts, and campaigners, is crucial for defining futures. Enriching the process of thinking about futures, while ensuring that the strategies developed are inclusive of a wide range of viewpoints. Techniques such as the Delphi Method use structured questions to reach consensus.
TREND ANALYSIS.
Identify and analyse current trends as a fundamental step into futures thinking. This involves monitoring technology, society, economics, environment, and geopolitics. By tracking these trends and their signals, brands can anticipate and prepare for change.
HISTORICAL ANALYSIS.
Understand the historical context of the brand, looking at past trends, events, and developments to identify patterns and cycles. This helps understand how trends have evolved and provide insight into future trajectories. Most trends that will impact brands in the next 10 years started at least 10 years ago, and have been accelerating due to one of the major drivers.
HORIZON SCANNING.
Continuously monitor and analyse external environments to identify emerging issues, trends, and signals of change. Horizon scanning (also called environmental scanning) helps in detecting early signs of disruptions and opportunities, allowing brands to adapt and respond proactively.
SCENARIO PLANNING.
A strategic planning method used to make flexible long-term plans. It involves creating detailed scenarios, based on different combinations of trends and uncertainties. Scenarios help brands to envision futures and develop design strategies. They also provide structure to otherwise disparate ideas, concepts and prototypes.
SPECULATIVE DESIGN.
Using design as a tool to explore and prototype future possibilities encourages thinking beyond conventional limits to imagine innovative solutions for future challenges. A way to explore the implications of technologies and societal changes in a tangible and experiential way.
SYSTEMS AND HUMAN-CENTRED DESIGN.
Brand futures thrive at the intersection of systems thinking and human-centred design. Systems thinking involves understanding the broader context and the interconnections between everything. When combined with people-centred problem-solving, it creates a framework for developing solutions that address real needs and value.
Human-centred design provides the tools for human-centred innovation, while systems thinking offers the framework for understanding the complexity and interdependence of the various critical elements. Navigating the Unprecedented Futures of Degrowth & Growth, Dark Matter Labs 2024
FUTURES LITERACY.
Encouraging futures literacy within business is essential. This means equipping individuals with the skills, resources, and mindset to think creatively about the future. Futures literacy involves being critical about the dynamics of change and being open to diverse perspectives.
RADICAL THINKING.
Radical thinking is essential for brand futures because it challenges existing norms, and leads to more innovative and transformative ideas. To uncover new opportunities and ensure greater adaptability in an uncertain world, go beyond the possible into the radical… and even entertain the unthinkable.
If what you’re imagining doesn’t seem ridiculous, it’s probably not a very useful image of a future. By pushing the boundaries of our imagination, we can better prepare for unexpected changes and develop more innovative solutions to meet these new challenges. Elliott P. Montgomery, Parsons School of Design
CREDIT: AMAZON / PILLPACK
EXAMPLES OF INNOVATIVE BRAND FUTURES.
The concept of future can be an empty canvas, inspiring us to fill it with our hopes and fears, and due to ecological, economic and social challenges, the interest in getting more defined ideas on future developments is increasing. Participatory Futures Research, Freie Universität Berlin
UNPLANNING OBSOLESCENCE: Framework’s modular laptop is designed to be easily upgradable and repairable. This design reduces electronic waste and ensures the product can be easily upgraded for future technological advances. Each component, from the motherboard to the ports, can be swapped out, extending the laptop’s lifespan and allowing users to customise their devices.
ETHICAL LUXURY: Stella McCartney’s fashion line incorporates sustainable materials and practices. Her brand launched the first vegan Stan Smiths and garments made from recycled textiles. This commitment to sustainability and innovation has set a new standard in the luxury fashion industry, and continues to guide ‘fashion futures’.
MATERIAL DIFFERENCE: Pangaia is another brand at the forefront of sustainable fashion, utilising innovative materials such as seaweed fibre and biodegradable dyes. This innovation significantly reduces the environmental impact by tackling one of the most significant issues — waste and pollution.
CLEANER ENERGY: Moxie Energy is revolutionising the clean energy sector by developing modular and scalable energy systems that can be rapidly deployed. These systems provide flexible and efficient solutions for renewable energy, contributing to a more resilient infrastructure.
SMART AGRICULTURE: Infarm is pioneering the field of agriculture with its advanced vertical farming technology designed for urban environments. This technology enables local, sustainable food production with minimal resource consumption — addressing food security challenges and reducing the carbon footprint associated with many traditional farming methods.
MAGIC TECHNOLOGY: “Tomorrow’s Connected Home” from Beko showcases smart home technologies that adapt to consumer needs. Integrates AI and IoT creates an energy-efficient, sustainable, and user-friendly household appliances — setting a new vision for modern living.
CONNECTED NUTRITION: Innit’s platform connects with kitchen appliances and offers meal planning, shopping assistance, and guided cooking. This smart kitchen solution enhances convenience and promotes healthier eating habits.
DURABLE LIFESTYLES: Suri take everyday tasks, such as brushing your teeth, and redesigns traditionally disposable products to make them more sustainable. They have a mission to reimagine a wide range of personal care products for “sustainable rituals”.
PERSONALISED HEALTHCARE: Amazon’s PillPack provides medication management services, packaging medicines into daily regimens, with direct delivery. Simplifying compliance, especially for patients with chronic conditions, aims to ensure more positive outcomes for patients.
MORE LIVEABLE CITIES: Tier offers electric scooters for urban neighbourhoods, aiming to reduce reliance on cars and carbon emissions. Their scooters are designed for durability and ease of use, with a battery swapping system to minimise downtime and environmental impact.
CIRCULAR PACKAGING: Notpla develops packaging and coatings made from seaweed and plants, that provides a biodegradable alternative to plastic. Their products dissolve naturally and do not contaminate recycling streams, which is an essential part of a circular economy.
LABORATORIES FOR THE FUTURE: SPACE10, IKEA’s external innovation lab, explored new ways of designing sustainable and adaptable living spaces. Through projects like urban farming, circular economy practices, and community-driven design, SPACE10 created ideas to address the challenges of urban living — promoting sustainability and quality of life (open 2015-2023).
CREDIT: SURI — SUSTAINABLE RITUALS
GET IN TOUCH TO DISCUSS BRANDS AND FUTURES…
This article was written by Adrian Jarvis, who founded Electro and works from a studio in East London. The concepts discussed here are highly scalable from start-ups to multinationals, across a range of categories and territories.